So ends a first half, one the Wild Things probably don't know how to feel about.
Even with a loss Sunday at Florence, the Wild Things head into the all-star break on a definite high note. They've won eight of their last 11 games, yet even with the big run the Wild Things haven't experienced a day of gaining ground on East Division leader Oakland County since July 4.
For every positive, there's a negative.
The one true way of measuring a team is with its won-lost record. As coaches in many sports like to say, you are what your record says you are.
Today, the record tells the Wild Things they are a 21-26 team and in fifth place in the East Division. Following an offseason filled with changes to the front office, coaching staff and roster, the Wild Things are almost identical to last year, when they were 21-27 and in fifth place at the all-star break. The only difference is the Wild Things were eight games out of first place last year. Today they are 10 1/2 games out of first but only 5 1/2 out of a playoff spot.
Are the Wild Things better than last year? I guess it depends on how you view the standings.
One thing is clear, though, fewer people are viewing the Wild Things these days. Attendance has tumbled in the first half of the season to a low of 2,373.
Wild Things Average Attendance
at the All-Star Break:
2002 - 2,942
2003 - 3,390
2004 - 3,242
2005 - 3,048
2006 - 3,133
2007 - 3,180
2008 - 2,899
2009 - 2,734
2010 - 2,373
So what has to happen for the Wild Things to go from fifth place to a contending team in the second half? For one thing, they'll need to win when playing the league's better teams. Washington has won five series, two against Kalamazoo (last place in the East), two against Florence (5th in the West) and one against Evansville (last place in the West). Washington hasn't won a series against a team better than 10 games under .500. With only three games remaining against the above mentioned teams, wins in the second half will come against good, playoff-contending teams and will do more to push the Wild Things up the standings.
It's obvious Washington needs an impact hitter, one that can carry a team with a hot streak. Without one, they've been forced to play small-ball for the past month, trying to win one-run games with squeeze plays, stolen bases, relief pitching and a big first half from leadoff hitter Chris Sidick, who leads the league in stolen bases (27) and on-base percentage (.451). It's tough to win over the long run playing small-ball in the hitter-happy Frontier League.
The bullpen has three usually reliable pitchers in Justin Edwards, Kevin Hammons and Eryk McConnell. Three arms at the back of the bullpen is the formula John Massarelli used with much success when he was manager in Washington. The difference in Mazz's staffs and this year's Wild Things team is in the starting pitching (and it always comes down to starting pitching, right?). Washington is 11th in the league in ERA (5.29) and last in quality starts (at least six innings and no more than three earned runs allowed).
Quality Starts
29 - Normal
25 - Oakland County
24 - Southern Illinois
22 - Traverse City
21 - Gateway
21 - Lake Erie
18 - Evansville
17 - Windy City
15 - River City
14 - Florence
14 - Kalamazoo
12 - Washington
At times, it seems as if Washington is determined to have its starting pitchers throw five innings -- no more, no less -- regardless of the score. For example, go back to Sunday's game. The Wild Things were looking at having the next four days off, and they had an off day only three days earlier, so there should have been extra pitchers available to throw an inning or two. Starter Zach Rosenbaum, however, was left in to give up nine runs in a 12-8 loss.
The starters will have to pitch deeper into games in the second half of the season -- long enough to turn a lead over to Edwards or Hammons in the seventh or eighth innings, not the sixth. Middle relief is where far too many games are lost in the Frontier League, which means the good teams are ones that rack up quality starts and give a lead to a trusted closer.
When Washington made the playoffs in 2006 and 2007, they had 44 and 38 quality starts, respectively. Being on pace for 24 quality starts in 95 games is a recipe for disaster.
So what if everything begins to align in the Wild Things' favor, with another impact hitter being found, starting pitchers reeling off one quality start after another and top-notch opponents being defeated? How many wins will it take for the Wild Things to make the playoffs?
Since the Frontier League went to a 96-game schedule in 2004 (remember, Washington will play only 95 because of the rainout Thursday at Evansville), the fourth-best record each season has averaged 52.3 wins. Last year it took 57 wins to get to the postseason from the East. For the Wild Things to get to 53 wins and have a fighting chance at the playoffs, they must go at least 32-16 in the second half. They'll quickly know if they have any chance of having a meaningful August because they play 12 of their first 18 games in the second half against Oakland County and Lake Erie, the top two teams in the East.
Labels: Attendance