Last word on attendance

Change has always been slow to come in baseball. Heck, it took almost 100 years until somebody decided it was OK to wear jerseys colored something other than white or gray.

When the nation's financial meltdown hit several years ago, minor-league baseball -- especially the independent level -- didn't feel the pinch in all markets the following season. Some teams were hit hard, others saw attendance rise slightly, others saw no significant change. Last year, half the teams in the Frontier League logged an increase in attendance over their 2009 figures.

It took some time, but the meltdown has finally trickled down to the Frontier League and all of independent baseball.

This year, every team in the Frontier League saw its average per-game attendance drop from 2010's numbers. And the dwindling turnstile counts were not limited to the Frontier. Only seven independent teams showed an attendance increase this summer, and that number should have an asterisk. The San Angelo (Texas) franchise in the North American Baseball League reported a per-game average increase of one fan. I'd be willing to bet that somebody in the Colts' front office figured out ahead of time just how much attendance he had to report in the season's final home game to get that one-person increase.

Another team that saw an increase was the Yuma Scorpions of the NABL. Yuma brought in Jose Caneseco as its manager this year and probably got a bump from having a household name in the dugout. That bump was an average of 81 fans per game.

Here is a look at how far attendance dropped per game in 2011 for each Frontier League team:

* Figures used from 2010 for Joliet and Rockford were when each of those franchises were in the Northern League.

Drop in Att. = Team
-39 = Traverse City
-77 = Windy City
-111 = Gateway
-201 = Normal
-205 = Washington
-290 = Evansville
-390 = Southern Illinois
-442 = Florence
-449 = Lake Erie
-750 = Rockford*
-799 = River City
-1,135 = Joliet*

Joliet's numbers are staggering, but you have to remember that the Slammers replaced a team called the Jackhammers, who played in the Northern League and left behind a trail of debt, which probably turned off plenty of people.

Those who say on-field success has little or no impact on attendance in minor-league baseball might be correct. In the FL this year, four of the six markets that showed the largest drop in attendance made the playoffs. And what's up in River City? At one time, this was the best-drawing market in the FL. Now, it's the worst despite the Rascals having an opportunity to be back-to-back champions.

In Washington, where attendance hit an all-time low of 2,226 per game, there are many factors that have caused the decline: the economy, three consecutive losing seasons, the 6:35 p.m. start time, the novelty of pro baseball has worn off, many people have been-there, done-that when it comes the Wild Things and Consol Energy Park. Stu Williams, one of the Wild Things' owners, even pointed to Washington having 27 home dates in the first of the season this year and only 21 in the second half as a contributing factor. Games in the first half of the season have more competition from youth baseball leagues.

The reasons for the dwindling attendance is probably all of the above. With baseball slow to change, reversing the trend will be difficult in 2012.

Useless information

Cleaning out the notebook prior to the restart of the Frontier League season Friday night:

The topic of discussion in manager Darin Everson's office prior to the Wild Things-Gateway game Sunday was how many wins will it take for a team to secure a playoff berth from the East Division?

The Frontier League went to a 96-game schedule in 2004, and since then the playoff team with the worst record each season has averaged 52 wins. There was a low of 46 (Evansville in 2006) and it took 56 wins to make the postseason in 2009. It doesn't look like the East will have a team pull away from the pack, or one that finishes with less than 30 wins, so the magic number will likely be closer to 52 than 56.

What does that mean for the Wild Things? To get to 52 wins, they need to go 33-16 after the all-star break.

* In Wednesday night's Frontier League All-Star game in Avon, Ohio, Washington's Casey Barnes and Jhonny Montoya each pitched a scoreless and hitless inning. Justin Hall gave up one solo home run in his inning. Catcher Blake Ochoa went 1-for-2 with a walk, and second baseman Scott Lawson was 0-for-1 with a throwing error.

* Washington does not have a home run from the No. 4 spot in the batting order all season.

* Remember Joel Hartman, who was a utility player for the Wild Things last year before suffering a season-ending finger injury? He joined a team in the Pecos League, based in New Mexico, after being released in spring training by the Wild Things. Hartman suffered another season-ending injury recently. According to the Pecos League website, Hartman broke a leg during a play at home plate.

* In Ernie Banks' first 128 at-bats with the Wild Things in 2009, he hit 12 home runs. In 128 at-bats this year, Banks does not have a home run.

* Both Vidal Nuno and Alan Williams -- the two Wild Things pitchers signed this season by MLB organizations -- are off to strong starts with their new teams. Nuno is playing for Staten Island (Yankees) in the Class A New York-Penn League. In five relief appearances, Nuno is 4-0 with one save and a 0.98 ERA. He has 17 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings with only three walks. Williams is with Helena (Brewers) in the rookie-level Pioneer League and has a 1-1 record with three saves in seven outings. The lefty has pitched 11 innings and struck out 24 with only three walks.

Former Wild Things pitcher Tom Cochran, who is in Class AAA with with Cincinnati, took the loss last Saturday in Louisville's 2-0 setback against Indianapolis, the Pirates' top affiliate. Cochran started the game and gave up only one run in five innings to drop his record to 6-2.

* Rockford, which is in fifth place in the East, made a key signing over the weekend, bringing back Jason James. The outfielder has one Frontier League batting title and finished second twice.

* In 46 games this season, Everson has used 45 different batting orders.

* Gateway manager Phil Warren on starting the season with three former West Virginia players and an ex-Pitt player on the Grizzlies' roster: "This is an area of the country that seems to get overlooked in the (major league) draft, for whatever reason."

* Despite losing Nuno, the opening day starter, Washington is tied for second in quality starts with 24. Florence also has 24. Windy City is tops with 28.

Wild Things Average Attendance
at the All-Star Break:
2002 - 2,942
2003 - 3,390
2004 - 3,242
2005 - 3,048
2006 - 3,133
2007 - 3,180
2008 - 2,899
2009 - 2,734
2010 - 2,373
2011 - 2,176

Biggest losers, again

If there is one post a statistical data on this blog that should scare the hell out of Wild Things ownership, then it's this less-than-sparkling piece. For the second consecutive year, the Wild Things had the largest decline in average single-game attendance in the Frontier League.

Of the 11 returning teams from 2009, the Wild Things were one of five that showed a decrease in attendance. Washington's attendance dipped by 358 fans per game, to a franchise-low 2,431 per game. Last year, the Wild Things showed the league's biggest decline at a mere 189 per game.

The economic decline surely has an impact on attendance, but six FL teams did show an increase this year, so economics can't be the sole cause of Consol Energy Park becoming a place with plenty of extra elbow and leg room. You have to wonder how much longer the team's ownership will put up with dwindling attendance.

If this year's attendance numbers reveal anything, it's that there's hope for Washington. River City is a franchise much like Washington in that it put up impressive attendance numbers in its first few seasons in the league. River City led the FL in attendance in 2002, averaging more than 3,900 fans per game. That average dipped to 1,952 in 2009.

This year, the Rascals made the playoffs for the second year in a row, won the league championship and had the largest boost in attendance at 411 per game. Win and the fans will come. That seems to be the best formula to attendance success for teams that have been around the FL for a decade or so.

Gain/decline (per game) for FL teams in 2010:

+411 - River City
+186 - Evansville
+116 - Lake Erie
+101 - Traverse City
+ 74 - Oakland County
+ 37 - Florence
- 17 - Gateway
-189 - Kalamazoo
-280 - Windy City
-301 - Southern Illinois
-358 - Washington

Packed house

I don't catch this until checking the Frontier League's homepage today. The Wild Things' game Sunday at Traverse City was played before a crowd of 8,211 at Wuerfel Park. It was the largest crowd to see a Wild Things game in their history, easily surpassing the previous record of 6,820 for a game at Evansville on July 24, 2004.

The Consol Energy Park attendance record is one that won't be broken any time soon. It's 4,247, set Aug. 23, 2003 for a game against Florence.

Better or worse?

So ends a first half, one the Wild Things probably don't know how to feel about.

Even with a loss Sunday at Florence, the Wild Things head into the all-star break on a definite high note. They've won eight of their last 11 games, yet even with the big run the Wild Things haven't experienced a day of gaining ground on East Division leader Oakland County since July 4.

For every positive, there's a negative.

The one true way of measuring a team is with its won-lost record. As coaches in many sports like to say, you are what your record says you are.

Today, the record tells the Wild Things they are a 21-26 team and in fifth place in the East Division. Following an offseason filled with changes to the front office, coaching staff and roster, the Wild Things are almost identical to last year, when they were 21-27 and in fifth place at the all-star break. The only difference is the Wild Things were eight games out of first place last year. Today they are 10 1/2 games out of first but only 5 1/2 out of a playoff spot.

Are the Wild Things better than last year? I guess it depends on how you view the standings.

One thing is clear, though, fewer people are viewing the Wild Things these days. Attendance has tumbled in the first half of the season to a low of 2,373.

Wild Things Average Attendance
at the All-Star Break:
2002 - 2,942
2003 - 3,390
2004 - 3,242
2005 - 3,048
2006 - 3,133
2007 - 3,180
2008 - 2,899
2009 - 2,734
2010 - 2,373

So what has to happen for the Wild Things to go from fifth place to a contending team in the second half? For one thing, they'll need to win when playing the league's better teams. Washington has won five series, two against Kalamazoo (last place in the East), two against Florence (5th in the West) and one against Evansville (last place in the West). Washington hasn't won a series against a team better than 10 games under .500. With only three games remaining against the above mentioned teams, wins in the second half will come against good, playoff-contending teams and will do more to push the Wild Things up the standings.

It's obvious Washington needs an impact hitter, one that can carry a team with a hot streak. Without one, they've been forced to play small-ball for the past month, trying to win one-run games with squeeze plays, stolen bases, relief pitching and a big first half from leadoff hitter Chris Sidick, who leads the league in stolen bases (27) and on-base percentage (.451). It's tough to win over the long run playing small-ball in the hitter-happy Frontier League.

The bullpen has three usually reliable pitchers in Justin Edwards, Kevin Hammons and Eryk McConnell. Three arms at the back of the bullpen is the formula John Massarelli used with much success when he was manager in Washington. The difference in Mazz's staffs and this year's Wild Things team is in the starting pitching (and it always comes down to starting pitching, right?). Washington is 11th in the league in ERA (5.29) and last in quality starts (at least six innings and no more than three earned runs allowed).

Quality Starts
29 - Normal
25 - Oakland County
24 - Southern Illinois
22 - Traverse City
21 - Gateway
21 - Lake Erie
18 - Evansville
17 - Windy City
15 - River City
14 - Florence
14 - Kalamazoo
12 - Washington

At times, it seems as if Washington is determined to have its starting pitchers throw five innings -- no more, no less -- regardless of the score. For example, go back to Sunday's game. The Wild Things were looking at having the next four days off, and they had an off day only three days earlier, so there should have been extra pitchers available to throw an inning or two. Starter Zach Rosenbaum, however, was left in to give up nine runs in a 12-8 loss.

The starters will have to pitch deeper into games in the second half of the season -- long enough to turn a lead over to Edwards or Hammons in the seventh or eighth innings, not the sixth. Middle relief is where far too many games are lost in the Frontier League, which means the good teams are ones that rack up quality starts and give a lead to a trusted closer.

When Washington made the playoffs in 2006 and 2007, they had 44 and 38 quality starts, respectively. Being on pace for 24 quality starts in 95 games is a recipe for disaster.

So what if everything begins to align in the Wild Things' favor, with another impact hitter being found, starting pitchers reeling off one quality start after another and top-notch opponents being defeated? How many wins will it take for the Wild Things to make the playoffs?

Since the Frontier League went to a 96-game schedule in 2004 (remember, Washington will play only 95 because of the rainout Thursday at Evansville), the fourth-best record each season has averaged 52.3 wins. Last year it took 57 wins to get to the postseason from the East. For the Wild Things to get to 53 wins and have a fighting chance at the playoffs, they must go at least 32-16 in the second half. They'll quickly know if they have any chance of having a meaningful August because they play 12 of their first 18 games in the second half against Oakland County and Lake Erie, the top two teams in the East.

Rainy days and Mondays

There's no doubt Consol Energy Park was a much less-crowded place this year. Heck, on most nights it wasn't even crowded. It was more like spacious Consol Energy Park.

Attendance at Wild Things games was down to an all-time low average of 2,789 tickets sold per game. Only two years ago, the average was a highly respectable 3,317. Wild Things ownership noticed the drop and cleaned house in the ticket office at season's end.

There were plenty of reasons for the drop in attendance, the most notable being the rotten economy. Almost everybody in southwestern Pennsylvania and the panhandle of West Virginia has less disposable income than they did two years ago.

There were other factors that contributed to the attendance drop. The Wild Things were out of the playoff race right from the start of the season. People with less money don't want to spend it watching the local team lose. There also was some lousy weather this spring, which killed the walk-up sales at many games (almost always on mid-week dates) but there's bad weather every year.

There's also the newness/novelty factor wearing off. People who are going to see only one or two Wild Things games in their lifetime have probably already seen them and won't be back. And judging by the comments on this blog, some people were turned off by the cost or customer service.

So what needs fixed with the Wild Things' marketing? Did the day of the week have anything to do with the drop in attendance? In this post, I'll try to answer the latter question.

Here is a breakdown of the Wild Things' average attendance per game in 2009 based on the day of week (the 2007 average is in parenthesis):

Sunday - 2,935 (3,355)
Monday - 2,164 (3,031)
Tuesday - 2,503 (2,971)
Wednesday - 2,141 (3,457)
Thursday - 2,712 (2,512)
Friday - 3,405 (3,598)
Saturday - 3,033 (3,539)

Note: The 2007 numbers are missing the attendance for one game, a June 20 Wednesday night game against Southern Illinois. The attendance was not listed in the boxscore and I didn't mention it in my game story. If I recall correctly, it was far less than 3,457, which would drop the average.

As you can see, there were huge drops on Mondays and Wednesdays. There were only two home games this year on Mondays, both against Midwest. Neither game drew 2,300. The Wii Wednesday giveaways didn't work. The Wild Things were a year too late on that promotion.

There was a gain in attendance of 200 on Thirsty Thursday, but the drops on Saturday and Sunday had to be major disappointments. Fireworks Friday attendance basically held steady. The slight drop was product of a crowd of only 2,648 opposite the opening week of high school football.

So where do the Wild Things go from here? If they use this chart as a gauge, they'll keep Thirsty Thursdays and Fireworks Fridays, hope Saturdays and Sunday pick up slightly (winning more often might make the difference) and focus much of their attention on how to boost tickets sales - especially group sales - on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Groups from places like Uniontown, Cranberry and Morgantown aren't likely to attend games on weeknights because parents have to go to work in the morning. The push for tickets will have to be local on these nights. If there's a hot giveaway item this year, it better be distributed early in the week.

The Wild Things can do a much better job of marketing themselves locally. There are still many people who live a stone's throw away from the ballpark who don't know the team even exists. On my street, I know there's only one family other than mine that has attended a WTs game. There others either don't know who the WTs are or what goes on at one of their games. These are the people who the new ticketing people must attract. The diehard fans will be back, the youth leagues will be back, but the people who have never been to a game have to be exposed to the product. And they need to be enticed to show up on a weekday.

Wild Things: biggest losers

The impact of the economic recession can be found everywhere in the sports world. From the NFL - where last week four teams requested last-minute extensions of the league's television blackout rules because their home openers were not yet sold out – to the minor leagues, attendance has become a major problem. Sports is no longer recession-proof.

Several independent baseball leagues have teams who were hit hard by the recession. In the Can-Am League, the American Defenders of New Hampshire, based in Nashua, were locked out of Holman Stadium for failure to pay some $45,000 in back rent and fees to local police officers and firemen. The Brockton Rox were unable to make their monthly lease payment of $30,000. The Rox have been rocked by slumping attendance and advertising for two years, this after setting the league attendance record in 2004.

In affiliated ball, only two Class AAA, two Class AA and five Class A teams exceeded their 2008 attendance figures. One of the Class A teams with a bump in attendance was the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, managed by former Wild Things manager Jeff Isom.

Of the 10 Frontier League teams that played in the same ballaprk this year as they did in 2008 (Midwest was a traveling team in 2008 and Lake Erie was a new franchise this season), three showed an increase in attendance. However, almost all of the teams saw their attendance hold steady.

The biggest gain was found in Marion, Ill., where the Southern Illinois Miners led the league in attendance at 4,554 per game, up 276 from last year. The Miners might have been helped by being in the playoff race until the final hours of the regular season.

The biggest loss in attendance was in Washington. The Wild Things drew an average of 2,789 fans to Consol Energy Park, which was the smallest figure in franchise history. It was a drop of 181 per game.

The Wild Things' attendance seemed to hold steady on weekends, especially on Fireworks Fridays. But weekday games saw significant dropoffs. A Wednesday night game against the Gateway Grizzlies in early June drew an announced crowd of only 1,340, the smallest in Wild Things history.

In the coming weeks, I'll attempt to analyze the Wild Things' attendance problems and provide some ideas on how to reverse the trend of declining attendance.

Change in attendance (per game) for Frontier League teams in 2009:

+276 Southern Illinois
+243 Windy City
+243 Florence
-38 Traverse City
-63 Evansville
-68 Rockford
-79 Gateway
-162 Kalamazoo
-170 River City
-181 Washington

Wild ending

Because of an early deadline Tuesday night at the Observer-Reporter, I had some leftover items from a wild finish to Washington's 6-5 victory over the Kalamazoo Kings.

If you missed it, the Wild Things won when Kalamazoo attempted a double steal with runners on the corners and one out in the top of the ninth inning. With a 3-2 count on batter Destan Makonnen, pinch-runner Bryan Marquez attempted to swipe second base. Makonnen struck out swinging on a pitch from Washington reliever Justin Edwards and catcher Alan Robbins tried to throw out Marquez. With the Kings' Joseph Ramos breaking from third base and trying to score, shortstop Brett Grandstrand cut off Robbins' throw between the pitcher's mound and second base.

Grandstrand's throw back to Robbins was low. Robbins, however, was able to gain control of the baseball and, while still on his knees, take a big hit from Ramos. Robbins held onto the ball for the final out.

That is the way the play was originally supposed to work when Makonnen stepped into the batter's box to face Edwards. Robbins, however, wanted to change the plan during a meeting at the mound later in the at-bat.

"I think that's the first time that play has worked all year," Robbins said. "I told the infielders, with a full count, I'll just try to throw the guy out at second base."

When Grandstrand cut off Robbins' throw he wasn't sure if the catcher was expecting a return throw to home.

"Granny double-clutched on the throw because he thought Robbins was looking somewhere else," Washington manager Mark Mason said. "That's why the throw was low."

"It short-hopped me," Robbins said. "I was able to scoop it off the ground right as (Ramos) hit me. If he would have slid, then he probably would have scored. I knew he was out. When you try to run the catcher over and he hangs onto the ball, then you're usually out. You're making the tag for him."

- Paid attendance was only 1,933, the third-smallest crowd for a home game in Wild Things history.

- Is this the final homestand on a grass field at Consol Energy Park? Bids have been submitted and representatives from six synthetic turf companies were at CEP last week checking out the dimensions of the playing surface.

However, a final decision on when to install the turf had not been made as of Tuesday afternoon. The Wild Things' owners met last night and the turf situation was one of the topics.

Turf companies require at least six weeks to install a field, and work can't be done when the ground is in a freezing-and-thawing mode. California University begins its schedule at CEP early in the spring, so the only time to install a turf field is in the fall. Work likely will have to start by early October, which means the Wild Things have little time to secure bank funding, if needed. The money coming from the motel tax is spread over 10 years, so the Wild Things must generate some up-front money, either through a bank loan or out-of-pocket. These turf companies generally like to be paid in full when installing their product. They're funny about that.