Up in smoke
Here's the final count of blown saves for each team from the 2008 season:
15 - Chillicothe
15 - Midwest
15 - Washington
15 - Windy City
12 - Southern Illinois
11 - Traverse City
9 - Florence
9 - Kalamazoo
9 - River City
9 - Rockford
7 - Evansville
6 - Gateway
15 - Chillicothe
15 - Midwest
15 - Washington
15 - Windy City
12 - Southern Illinois
11 - Traverse City
9 - Florence
9 - Kalamazoo
9 - River City
9 - Rockford
7 - Evansville
6 - Gateway
posted by Chris Dugan at
4:46 AM
19 Comments:
Hey, Chris...
How'd that "anonymous" say it the other day: "Are we still talkin' about the bullpen?"
Yeah, I think that was it.
Well, obviously, the bullpen is a subject still in need of discussion.
Bob,
Tells me what an overrated stat, blown saves actually are if Windy City tied for the league high. Kalamazoo wasn't far behind
Here's another stat, not sure if it's overrated, but I think it's indicative of the season:
When I quit counting (August 4th), the Wild Things had allowed the winning run to score in the opponents last at-bat 15 times.
Washington scored the winning run in their own last at-bat just 8 times up to that point.
now thats a real stat. I wish you wouldn't have stopped counting
There weren't many more, only 1-2 in the loss column.
There were 2-3 more wins in last at-bat from that time on as well.
"Tells me what an overrated stat, blown saves actually is if Windy City was tied for the league high. Kalamazoo wasn't far behind."
Overrated? Using that logic, you're saying having the lead late in a game is overrated. It's not quite the "skewed" stat that a catcher's caught-stealing percentage is, but it gives a strong indication of how many more wins a team should have had.
What it definitely shows is, if Matt Petty didn't blow about eight leads early in the season then Windy City wouldn't have started 1-7 and 6-13 and would have ran away with the West title.
It also shows that with better late-innings pitching in the first two months, Washington would have made the playoffs. The Wild Things were the only team with more blown saves than saves, which means when they had a small lead late in the game they usually squandered it.
Chris,
Did Washington lose all 15 of those games that they blew the save.
I have that information at home. I'm be at the office for the next few hours, so I'll post it late tonight.
Think about this:
Windy City won their division but tied the league lead for blown saves.
Evansville was last in their division and had the 2nd fewest blown saves.
dumb stat.
part of the reason is that when im managing a gme at home. I manage the top of the 9th for the tie when runners reach knowing that im going to bat last.
Mazz,
Appoximately how far is Avon Lakes from your home. Some on this blog say you will be the new manager for Avon Lakes. It might be commuting distance for you.
Upon further review...
Of Washington's 15 blown saves, two came in the same game - a 14-inning loss at River City.
In the 14 games in which blown saves occured, Washington had a 6-8 record.
As for the last at-bat wins and losses that Bob Gregg mentioned, I did continue to keep these through the end of the season. Washington scored the winning run in its last at-bat 11 times and gave up the game-winner in the opponent's last at-bat 16 times.
And the final numbers on the relief pitchers:
W-L: 20-14
Saves: 12
Blown Saves: 15
ERA: 5.23
IP: 298.2
H: 313
BB: 175
HBP: 28
That works out to 516 baserunners allowed in 298.2 innings.
Just found an old index card with Washington's relief pitching stats for 2007. For what it's worth: Washington relief pitchers in 2007 were 19-14 with 28 saves and 5 blown saves. The Wild Things were 1-4 in games in which they had a blown save.
i bet if you look how many games a team was losing after 5 will give you a much better indication of their reason for not being there.
the wild things were a .500 team and their blown saves record was close to .500
never heard of Avon Lakes.
Mazz was right. The blown saves stat is meaningless. The last to bat score stat is also meaningless. We need more mazz on here to help us learn baseball!
mazz,
The Wild Things were in the middle of the pack in "record when trailing after 5 innings"--10-34.
44 times this season the Wild Things were trailing after 5 innings, 10 more they tied through 5 frams.
On the other side, nobody lost more games when leading after 7 innings that Washington. Not even close. The Wild Things lost 9 games after leading through 7. Windy City was the closest, losing 6 7-inning leads.
Washington also led the League in losing games led after 8 innings--4. Gateway had as many as WT in that category.
[url=http://www.wjpa.com/FLLeads.pdf]Frontier League "When Leading" (pdf)[/url]
Bob,
no doubt bullpens win games, the best teams in the league at any level have the best bullpens. I've always believed in Managing the game from back to the front of the pitching staff.
My argument is one of the most worthless stats in my mind is Blown saves stats. not to be outdone by the save itself.
mazz,
I'm not disagreeing with you.
One of my favorite examples is:
Starter takes a 1-0 lead into the bottom of the 8th, then loads the bases with nobody out.
Reliever comes in, allows a single, retires the next three batters, team loses 2-1, loss for the starter, blown save for the reliever.
Or how about the 2-out flyball dropped, allowing the tying run to score and all kinds of madness follows. Blown save.
Late losses are particularly troubling, though not always the fault of the bullpen.
The Wild Things, with the exception of a brief, 5-6 game streak, never put all phases of the game together this year. Whether it was affiliated signings, injuries, discontent, yada, yada, yada, it just never happened.
THAT's the biggest difference from the first six years of the franchise.
Of course, if you go back to 2002 and tell everyone that "over the next seven years, we'll make the playoffs six times and won't make it once", most people would be okay with that. However, having made it six straight, we all wanted the seventh and it just didn't work. Almost, but not quite.
Mazz,
Sorry, had the name wrong. It is Avon Lake, about 1 hour from Akron.
This blog has you being the new manager of the team.
Look forward to seeing you when you play in Washington.
Well, MAZZ,
I guess you figured out where Avon was....
Won't likely be seeing many of your posts here anymore....
See you in May.
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