Thursday, September 19, 2013

Up in smoke, 2013 version

This season, perhaps more than any other in which the Wild Things played in the Frontier League, showed how the blown save statistic can be flawed.

Sure, a blown save shows that a relief pitcher inherited a lead and squandered the advantage. There's no getting around that fact. But does a team having a lot of blown saves necessarily mean that its  bullpen is worse than that of a team with only a few blown saves?

There are various kinds of blown saves. There is the blown save that comes in the sixth inning when a reliever enters the game with two runners on base, no outs and a one-run lead. The reliever gives up only one run in the inning, but it's considered a blown save. Then there's the blown save when a closer enters in the ninth inning with a two-run lead and promptly gives up two singles and a walk-off homer.

The reliever in the first example can still help his team win the game. The reliever in the latter takes a loss.

Another way to see how a team's blown save total can be misleading is by simply looking at the standings. Teams that win a lot of games generally have many more save opportunities than teams at the bottom of the standings. This leads to more opportunities for blown saves for the good teams. The 2013 Frontier League is a great example of this. That's why you find league champion Schaumburg at the top of the blown saves list and Joliet at the bottom.

Of course, being a traveling team that never bats in the bottom of the ninth inning can get you at the top of the blown saves list, too.

This list, however, does show some important things about relief pitching and the standings. Do you think Southern Illinois and River City would like to have a few of those blown saves converted to saves?

The six blown saves for Washington was its fewest since 2007 (5). Also, the six blown saves came from six different relievers. Nobody had more than one blown save.

2013 Blown Saves
16 - Greys
16 - Schaumburg
16 - Southern Illinois
15 - River City
15 - Rockford
12 - Florence
12 - Normal
11 - Gateway
11 - Lake Erie
10 - Evansville
10 - Traverse City
  8 - Windy City
  6 - Washington
  4 - Joliet

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