Pennant race: In or out?

While preparing to turn the page of the calendar from July to the dog days of August and the Frontier League pennant race, we take time to analyze and scrutinize in an attempt to show why the top 10 teams in the standings are either in postseason hunt or have too much working against them to win a division title or garner one of two coveted wild-card spots.

If the season were to end at the time of this writing, Traverse City and Gateway would be the division champions, with Florence and Schaumburg winning a tight race for the wild cards. So let's first look at the remaining schedules and show why each of these four teams can remain in playoff position and add what they have to overcome to hold their spot:

Traverse City
Pro: The Beach Bums have a stretch 24 games in August that includes 18 at home, where they are 20-13. They also are one of only three contenders that have two series remaining against the Greys.
Con: While they play only four road series from here until the finish, the Beach Bums will have just one (River City at 31-32) against a team currently with a losing record. Traverse City also has to play a series at home against Gateway.

Gateway
Pro: The Grizzlies have eight series remaining against teams currently with losing records. No other team has that many against sub-.500 clubs. Gateway also has three series (10 games) left with Rockford, the last-place team in the West. The Grizzlies have the best home record in the league and will play 17 more times at GCS Ballpark.
Con: Gateway still has to go to both Traverse City and Southern Illinois (the latter to end the season) and has to make the long journey to Washington).

Florence
Pro: The Freedom play 18 games at home, and have only one road series left with a team currently holding a winning record (Normal). They also play six games at Washington, a team the Freedom have defeated 19 times in the last 22 meetings.
Con: Florence is the only contender in the East that does not play the Greys again.

Schaumburg
Pro: The only contender from the West that has games left against the Greys. The Boomers have five home series remaining, but only one (Traverse City) is against a team better than seven games below .500.
Con: Lots of road games left, including one series each at Normal, Southern Illinois and Lake Erie, the three teams directly behind Schaumburg in the wild-card standings.

As for the next six teams in the standings, here is why each can be considered in, and out, of the playoff race:

Southern Illinois
In: The Miners have nine games left with Schaumburg and Normal -- two teams either tied with or ahead of the Miners by only one game) and all nine will be played at Rent One Park. Southern Illinois has the second-best home record in the league.
Out: The Miners have the most difficult remaining schedule of all the contenders. Southern Illinois has nine games (six on the road) left against the two division leaders, and only four series will be played against teams currently with a losing record (the least of any contender).

Normal
In: The CornBelters will play two series at home against Rockford, and will end the season with a nine-game homestand.
Out: We mentioned that Southern Illinois has the league's second-best home record. Well, Normal plays six times in a 12-day stretch in August at Rent One Park. Plus, can you make the playoffs when you're 12th in the league in team batting average?

Lake Erie
In: Six games left against the Greys and six against Washington. All 12 of those are at home. Though they have six to play against Traverse City, they're all at home.
Out: The Crushers are next-to-last in the league in runs scored. Can they win enough pitchers' duels down the stretch?

River City
In: The Rascals are the league's hottest team, winning 10 of their last 14. River City has 17 road games left, but only five (all at Gateway) are against teams with winning records.
Out: Eight games left against division leaders, and every team that will pull into O'Fallon, Mo., should have at least an outside shot at making the playoffs.

Washington
In: After playing a three-game series at Lake Erie, the Wild Things will play 21 of 30 at home, including six against the Greys.
Out: Six games left against Florence (see note above about Florence-Washington series) and will play at Traverse City. The Beach Bums have won 21 of the last 22 against the Wild Things.

Evansville
In: Lots of home games. Evansville will play more home games than any of the other top-10 teams. The Otters will be at Bosse Field for five consecutive weekends and will play only one road series (at Joliet) after Aug. 15.
Out: The Otters are struggling, they're 13 in the league in ERA and last in fielding percentage. That's a bad combination.